Thoughts on the 2009 Oscar Nominations
BEST PICTURE
"Avatar" James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
"The Blind Side" Nominees to be determined
"District 9" Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
"An Education" Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
"The Hurt Locker" Nominees to be determined
"Inglourious Basterds" Lawrence Bender, Producer
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
"A Serious Man" Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
"Up" Jonas Rivera, Producer
"Up in the Air" Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers
As you have heard, the Oscars went to 10 Best Picture choices this year. What you may not have heard is that the voting for nominations (and the voting for the actual award) this year is Ranked Choice voting. This is the same type of voting system used by a few communities (like the City of Minneapolis) and the Hugo Awards. It basically means that voters have to rank their choices.
So If I was an Oscar voter, my ballot for best Picture could look like this:
1. Up
2. Avatar
3. Inglorious Basterds.
Now, say, in tabulating the votes, Up got the least amount of votes, and no movie got a majority. Up would be eliminated, and everyone, like me, who voted for Up would have their second place votes count as their new first place votes. So my vote would then go for Avatar.
MPR has a nifty video on the subject of ranked choice voting.
Anyway, this makes it difficult to predict who will win the Oscar and who should.
My guess is that the movies who don't have one of the five best director nods will NOT win. And out of those five...I want Avatar to win. II suspect the little-seen The Hurt Locker will actually win.
BEST DIRECTOR
"Avatar" James Cameron
"The Hurt Locker" Kathryn Bigelow
"Inglourious Basterds" Quentin Tarantino
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" Lee Daniels
"Up in the Air" Jason Reitman
Usually, the Best Picture=Best Director. There are exceptions of course. So, I am rooting for Cameron, but Bigelow will get it.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney in "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth in "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman in "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner in "The Hurt Locker"
Everyone and everything I have read says that the statue already has Jeff Bridges' name carved on it. Any other winner would be a big upset.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren in "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan in "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia"
Streep deserves another Oscar after all of this time, but I suspect that it will go to maybe Mirren, possibly Sidibe.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon in "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson in "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer in "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci in "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds"
I have heard that Waltz' name is being carved on the statue. And he is the first and best reason to see Inglorious Basterds. One of the best villains in movie history.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz in "Nine"
Vera Farmiga in "Up in the Air"
Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart"
Anna Kendrick in "Up in the Air"
Mo'Nique in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Hard to tell. Will Bridges pull his co-star Gyllenhaal along with her? Will Mo'Nique's perfomance in Precious win out. I think Mo'Nique will take home the statue.
Posted by Jvstin at February 3, 2010 5:27 AM